El Niño forecast 2026: What NOAA's latest update means for summer
Experts give El Niño conditions a 62 percent chance of emerging later this year.
www.newsweek.comHere’s the latest on El Niño intensity forecasts for 2026, based on recent updates from major meteorological centers and news outlets.
Key takeaways
- Most forecasts in spring 2026 pointed toward the onset of El Niño later in the year, with growing confidence in a notable intensification by summer or fall. Multiple sources cite a rising probability that El Niño will emerge by mid-2026 and strengthen through the latter part of the year. [sources consolidated below]
Latest forecasts and outlooks (high-level)
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updates in early to mid-2026 repeatedly indicated increasing odds of El Niño development sometime around June–August 2026, with probabilities often cited around 60% or higher for development by mid-year and continuing into the fall. These updates also note notable forecast uncertainty due to the spring predictability barrier. [NOAA CPC updates; multiple outlets reported similar timelines]
- Some European and international models, including ECMWF-based forecasts, began to trend toward a stronger El Niño in 2026, with several ensembles suggesting a higher likelihood of robust warming in the central and eastern Pacific and possible record- or near-record strength by late 2026. [ECMWF-model syntheses cited by multiple outlets]
- Media roundups in May 2026 highlighted the possibility of a “strong” to “super” El Niño by fall, with discussions of a 2.0°C or greater anomaly in Niño3.4 as a threshold for notable global impacts. Prognoses varied by model and month, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty during the spring predictability barrier. [Weather-focused outlets and global weather agencies]
Potential regional impacts (illustrative)
- While exact regional impacts depend on exact timing and strength, the likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions in parts of the southern cone (e.g., southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina) and drier/wetter shifts in various Pacific-facing regions have been discussed in several forecasts, consistent with typical El Niño patterns. Always consult local meteorological services for region-specific advisories as the event approaches. [Regional outlook discussions in multiple forecast briefs]
What to watch next
- The key milestones to monitor are (1) confirmation of El Niño onset by mid-year, (2) tracking Niño3.4 SST anomalies approaching +0.5°C to +1.0°C and then stronger, and (3) ensemble spread as forecasts converge on intensity and duration. Given the spring predictability barrier, expect updates to refine both timing and strength through late spring and summer. [NOAA CPC notes on forecast evolution and uncertainty]
Notes on sources
- NOAA CPC ENSO outlooks and discipline-focused briefings provide the authoritative baseline for timing and probabilities, with corroborating summaries appearing in major outlets as the spring and early summer 2026 period progressed. [NOAA CPC and major outlets]
- International models (ECMWF and others) contributed to the broader context by suggesting stronger-than-previously-expected warming, reinforcing the possibility of a significant event later in 2026. [ECMWF-based forecast summaries in the spring and May 2026 period]
If you’d like, tell me your region of interest ( Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil included ), and I can pull specific regional forecasts and likely impacts for that area as the event approaches. I can also monitor for updated CPC advisories and summarize any changes that emerge.